A 1960 Paper Published In Science Predicts World Will End Next Month
sciencehabit shares a report from Science Magazine: A physicist has put a definite date on Doomsday," The New York Times wrote on November 4, 1960. "He calculates that it will come on Friday the Thirteenth in November, 2026 A. D. On that date, or thereabouts, the human population will have expanded so far as to approach infinity and thus will automatically annihilate itself." The newspaper was…
In 1960, Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster, along with two colleagues, published a controversial paper in Science magazine predicting the end of human civilization. The paper, titled "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026," was based on a simple observation - the time it took for the human population to double kept getting shorter.
Using population estimates from various periods, the authors developed an equation that best described this trend. If the current rate of population growth continued, the authors predicted that the world's human population would reach more than 25 billion by 2020. They concluded that at some point, the equation would predict an infinite population, marking "Doomsday."
However, the exact date was somewhat arbitrary. The researchers determined that the formula gave a solution of 2026.87 plus or minus 5.5 years. The New York Times reported that von Foerster chose Friday the Thirteenth in November 2026, as it fell conveniently within this doom-time span, and it happened to be his birthday.
Critics quickly pointed out flaws in the prediction. Demographers argued that while the rate of population growth could significantly increase, it could not be shorter than the 9-month gestation period of a baby. Public health expert Harold Dorn noted that the forecast would set a record for the short length of time required to demonstrate its unreliability.
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