WTO lifts 2026 trade forecast to 3.9% on AI investment boom
AgenciesThe World Trade Organization is sharply increasing its forecast for merchandise trade growth worldwide this year, more than doubling its earlier prediction to 3.9 percentas...
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly raised its 2026 trade growth forecast, more than doubling its previous estimate to 3.9 percent. This surge in prediction is attributed to a boom in investments in artificial intelligence (AI), which is expected to boost goods trade. The Geneva-based organization noted that global trade has been performing well, with supply chains adapting to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets.
AI-related spending has provided a significant boost to goods trade, accounting for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026. This growth rate surged by 67 percent year-on-year, outpacing the previously anticipated growth. The revised forecast marks a substantial increase from the initial estimate of 1.9 percent growth for merchandise trade in spring.
The WTO expects global GDP to grow by 2.6 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2027, despite continued challenges from the Middle East conflict, which has led to higher energy prices and disruptions in transport routes.
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