Will El Niño and the polar vortex bring snow to the UK this winter?
The developing El Niño may impact the UK's weather prospects this autumn and winter but cold conditions are far from guaranteed.
El Niño and the polar vortex have been linked to the possibility of snow in the UK this autumn and winter, but the reality is far more complex. While El Niño is currently at its strongest on record and is expected to bring wet and stormy weather to the UK in autumn, its effects on winter weather are not as straightforward. As we move into late winter, El Niño may increase the likelihood of the polar vortex becoming disrupted, which could lead to colder and snowy conditions.
However, the relationship between El Niño and the polar vortex is not well understood and the evidence is mixed. Historical examples, such as the "Big Freeze" of 2009/2010 and the "Beast from the East" in 2018, show that El Niño winters can be both cold and snowy, and warm and unseasonably mild. Meanwhile, La Niña winters, which are the opposite of El Niño years, have also produced unusually cold weather in the UK. At present, forecasts indicate no significant cold or snow is expected in the near future.
Written by urgent.news from BBC Science's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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