US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate hits 7.40%, likely to further erode housing demand

The national housing market finds itself at the core of an affordability crisis as the US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate climbs to a near three-year peak of 7.40%, according to Freddie Mac. This surge in rates, up from 7.28% last week, is attributed to rising concerns over inflation, which in turn has driven up Treasury yields.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note, a key indicator for mortgage rates, has hit a 24-year high. The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has jumped 142 basis points since the US-Israeli war with Iran began at the end of February.

The combination of higher mortgage rates and persistently high home prices has intensified the housing affordability crisis, especially as the midterm elections loom in November. President Trump had previously resisted signing a bipartisan housing affordability bill, arguing it was unhelpful. The bill, enacted without his approval in July, sought to expedite environmental reviews for home construction projects and limit large Wall Street investors' ownership of single-family homes.

Higher mortgage rates are deterring both potential buyers and sellers, contributing to a national housing shortage, particularly for starter homes, which has kept prices elevated despite weakening demand. Lisa Sturtevant of Bright MLS notes that the market is more likely to see a stall rather than a crash this fall due to the combined effects of higher rates suppressing demand and limiting supply.