Trump keeps changing who gets his $5,000 dividend, and only 21% of voters believe he’ll actually pay it

As the midterms approach, President Donald Trump has been changing the criteria for his proposed $5,000 cash dividend, leaving voters skeptical. According to a poll conducted by Economist and YouGov, only 21% of registered voters believe Trump will actually pay out the dividend if Republicans maintain control of Congress. Even among Republicans, less than half (45%) think Trump will follow through.

Trump first announced the dividend on September 9 during a Republican midterm convention in Dallas, stating that every adult U.S. citizen would receive $5,000 if Republicans won both the House and Senate. However, his messaging has evolved over time. On October 3, Trump tweeted that the dividend would be distributed to "every U.S. Citizen if, and when, the Republicans win the Midterm Elections." On October 2, he said the check would go to "all adult citizens."

The eligibility criteria for the dividend could potentially exclude around 73 million people, depending on whether Trump defines "adult citizens" as every U.S. citizen or every adult U.S. citizen. This discrepancy could have significant financial implications, with a $5,000 payment to every adult costing roughly $1.3 trillion, and a $5,000 payment to all U.S. citizens costing over $1.7 trillion.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle has defended the dividend, stating that Trump has consistently delivered on his promises and will continue to do so. However, voters remain skeptical, with 61% of likely voters saying Trump will not deliver the dividend, compared to 21% who believe he will. Additionally, 45% of voters oppose the payments, while only 43% support the idea.