The Russia Plague Paradox Is Frightening

The Russia Plague Paradox is a frightening situation that has many people on edge. The Black Death of the 14th century killed between 30 to 60 percent of Europe's population, a stark reminder of the devastating impact plagues can have. Recently, a 28-year-old anti-plague biolab worker in Irkutsk, Russia, died from suspected pneumonic plague, a disease with a 100 percent mortality rate if left untreated.

Annie Jacobsen, author of Biological War: A Scenario, warned that this could be a big deal for Russian security, and Mike Pompeo, former U.S. Secretary of State, echoed this sentiment, urging the situation to be treated seriously. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow issued a health alert on October 6, acknowledging the reports of suspected pneumonic plague, and the State Department urged Americans to leave Russia immediately due to security risks. The U.S. has sent Moscow a démarche, requesting more information on the situation.

Pneumonic plague is indeed a frightening disease, but it may not be as dangerous for global pandemic as initially feared. It is highly lethal, but can be treated with antibiotics and has limited transmission potential. The basic reproduction number is close to 1.18, which is barely one onward infection per patient. Standard control measures, such as social distancing and wearing high-quality medical masks, can effectively limit transmission.

While plague has occurred in Madagascar, Uganda, and Peru, it is not a likely candidate for a COVID-style global event. The Russian response to the case in Irkutsk seems disproportional to the disease, which is treatable and well-managed by medical professionals. More information is needed to confirm the diagnosis and to understand the full extent of the situation.