Republicans squirm as Latino support slips in South Texas

Republicans find themselves struggling to maintain the Latino support that had fueled their political aspirations two years ago. The most striking example of this shift can be found in South Texas, a region where President Trump achieved historic results in 2024. In 2024, Trump secured 55% of Latino votes in Texas, carried 14 of the 18 counties within a 20-mile radius of the border, and won all four Rio Grande Valley counties.

However, recent polls indicate a significant decline in Trump's disapproval ratings among Latino voters in Texas since the 2024 elections.

Democrats and allied groups have seized the opportunity to capitalize on this change, pouring significant resources into races in the Rio Grande Valley. In particular, the Republican-held district TX-15, which had been a strong symbol of the GOP's South Texas breakthrough, now faces a potential shift. Former Rep. Monica De La Cruz, a key GOP figure in the region, is now facing a Democratic challenger, Bobby Pulido, in a race that Cook Political Report has deemed a toss-up.

A recent NBC News/Telemundo poll reveals that nationwide, Latinos now favor Democratic control of Congress by a margin of 59% to 35%, a 24-point advantage that more than doubles the margin found in the 2024 presidential vote.

The financial disparity between the two sides is also noteworthy. In TX-34, Democratic campaigns and allied groups have spent $2.7 million on Spanish-language ads, compared to $1.6 million by Republicans. In TX-15, Democratic groups have spent more than twice as much as Republican groups on Spanish-language ads. The newly drawn district TX-35, which was previously considered likely Republican, has now shifted to lean Republican.

House Majority PAC has intensified its efforts to defend Democratic incumbents and target De La Cruz in TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34 through a new round of Spanish-language ads.