Race to choose next UNSG remains unresolved

The search for the next United Nations Secretary-General is still ongoing after five informal voting rounds, with Rebeca Grynspan, the former head of the UN trade agency, still in the lead. International Crisis Group analyst Daniel Forti warns that opposition from permanent veto-holding powers and continuing divisions could introduce a late entrant.

So far, seven candidates remain in the race after Michelle Bachelet's withdrawal from the competition. Forti notes that Grynspan has maintained a narrow but significant lead over the other candidates, but not enough to ensure her selection as the next Secretary-General. The latest October 7th Straw Poll left Grynspan at the top with nine encouraging votes, Argentina's Rafael Grossi with six encourages and seven discourages, and Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett in third place with five encourages and nine discourages.

Other candidates, including Senegal's Macky Sall, Ecuador's Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Uganda's Olara Otunnu, and Ecuador's Ivonne Baki, are far behind in the current standings. The Security Council is expected to use colour-coded ballots in the upcoming straw poll, which will reveal potential vetoes from permanent members. It is unclear if any dark horse candidates may enter the race before the first colour-coded straw poll, but they would face a difficult road to become a viable choice for the next Secretary-General.