Politics with Michelle Grattan: why Victoria’s unpredictable election matters nationally
Premier Ben Carroll, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, One Nation’s Colleen Harkin and pollster Tony Barry preview November 28’s closely watched election.
The Victorian election is approaching on November 28, and Labor is attempting an unprecedented feat – winning its fourth consecutive term after 12 years in power. However, Victoria's Premier, Ben Carroll, who took office in July through a third leadership change, wonders if it's too late for Labor to secure a victory. The result of the election is capturing national attention, serving as a gauge of One Nation's strength.
Polling firm Redbridge's Tony Barry notes that there's a strong desire for change in Victoria, with 75% of respondents believing the state is moving in the wrong direction. Despite a leadership change from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, there has been no improvement in Labor's vote share. Allan's personal favorability rating is a net -42, which Barry describes as "catastrophic."
While Labor can afford to lose 11 seats and still maintain a majority government, the opposition will face a significant task in picking up 16 seats to secure a majority.
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