Philippine rice import outlook mixed as El Niño, fertilizer costs cloud demand
Philippine rice import prospects for 2027 remain mixed, with front-loaded purchases and strategic stockpiling providing a supply cushion, while intensifying El Niño risks and elevated fertilizer costs could weigh on domestic production, market participants told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Oct. 7. The resulting stock cushion could temper Philippine rice import demand in early ...
The Philippine rice import outlook for 2027 remains uncertain, as a combination of El Niño risks and rising fertilizer costs could impact both domestic production and market demand, according to industry experts. The country's Agriculture Secretary, Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., anticipates the nation's rice import requirement for 2027 to return to around 4 million metric tons, with potential fluctuations of 5-10%.
This projection is contingent on the anticipated supply cushion resulting from front-loaded purchases and strategic stockpiling ahead of the El Niño season.
Laurel highlighted that the Philippines' 2027 rice import requirement could be tempered by the stock build, which would help manage potential El Niño effects through April 2027. However, the extent of production losses due to El Niño and high fertilizer costs remains uncertain. Market participants have differing views on the outlook for 2027 imports, with some expecting a significant increase in imports during controlled importation periods, while others believe imports will remain at similar levels to the previous year.
The Department of Agriculture reported that high fertilizer costs and El Niño have taken a toll on domestic food production, particularly rice, further exacerbating food inflation. Fertilizer prices have surged, with prilled urea increasing by 34% year-on-year and granular urea rising by 38%. El Niño-related dry weather has also impacted farmers, as dry conditions in Eastern and southern regions have discouraged fertilizer application.
The prolonged El Niño season, expected to intensify between September-December 2026 and persist into the first half of 2027, has raised concerns about water supply and agricultural dry spells, threatening domestic food security. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration warns that prolonged rainfall deficits could increase the risk of severe agricultural dry spells and water supply issues. All provinces could face drought conditions by March 2027 as El Niño intensifies.
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