'Ominous signs' of winter pressures as NHS waiting list grows

Senior health officials have raised concerns about the potential impact of winter pressures on the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Recent data shows that the waiting list for routine hospital treatments has increased for the second consecutive month, reaching the highest level since October 2025. There are now an estimated 7.37 million treatments waiting to be carried out, affecting 6.24 million patients.

This rise in waiting lists occurs despite the NHS delivering record levels of planned, elective care during the summer months, with over 4.7 million treatments taking place between June and August.

NHS England's national medical director, Professor Frankie Swords, warned that early signs of winter pressure are already being observed. She noted that more patients are presenting with flu and other respiratory viruses during this time of year, and many people are experiencing longer-than-expected waiting times. The NHS Alliance, representing hospitals, stated that the government is unlikely to meet its manifesto promise of achieving the 18-week hospital waiting time target by the end of the current parliament in 2029. This target has not been met for a decade.

The Health Foundation think-tank also reported that progress in reducing waiting times has stalled over the past year, with referrals on the waiting list increasing at a faster rate than the number of patients being treated. Sir Ciarán Devane, chief executive of the NHS Alliance, emphasized that the NHS continues to respond to record demand for care, but the growing demand for services is placing significant pressure on NHS staff.

Francesca Cavallaro of the Health Foundation highlighted that while staff have worked hard to bring down waiting times, the rising number of referrals means the service is struggling to keep up. The government has yet to clarify whether they will prioritize the 18-week target as they did under former leader Keir Starmer. However, our analysis indicates that delivering on this pledge is becoming increasingly challenging.

As summer's long stretch gave way to the onset of winter, more patients, including children, have been arriving at emergency departments with flu and other respiratory viruses. The number of patients seen within four hours in A&Es declined to 74.4% in September, down from 75.0% in August. Additionally, the number of people waiting over 12 hours from the decision to admit to being admitted, known as "corridor care," rose to 50,582 in September, up from 44,951 in August.

This 13% year-on-year increase in emergency department waits as winter approaches should raise alarm among healthcare professionals.

The government asserts that the 18-week mark can still be achieved, citing investments in NHS buildings and equipment to enhance service productivity. They also pointed to the impact of resolving disputes over resident doctors' strikes, which caused temporary disruptions to care. However, concerns persist among NHS leaders and political figures regarding the strain services are experiencing even before the full impact of winter takes hold.