O rali das small caps
No rali desta semana, 18 ações subiram mais de 20% em três pregões. Dessas, 17 estão no índice de small caps – a exceção é a Localiza, que valorizou 20,5% no período – e apenas sete fazem parte do Ibovespa (e com pesos reduzidos). Depois de subir 7,7% na segunda-feira, o Ibovespa caiu 1,3% nos […] The post O rali das small caps appeared first on Brazil Journal .
This week, a notable rally took place among small cap stocks, with 18 shares rising by more than 20% in three sessions. Seventeen of these were part of the small cap index, with Localiza being the exception, which saw a 20.5% increase during this period. Only seven stocks are included in the Ibovespa index, which had reduced weights.
After a 7.7% rise on Monday, the Ibovespa fell 1.3% in the following two sessions, trading higher by 0.6% around 11 a.m. amid a difficult day abroad, where oil prices climbed and other markets fell. The small cap index, however, rose by 12% between Monday and Thursday, with an additional 1% increase today. Fernando Ferreira, the chief strategist at XP, noted that while many watch the Ibovespa and assume the movement on Monday ceased in the following days, this was not the case in the broader market.
Typically, rallies begin with large cap stocks leading the charge, followed by smaller companies, which often experience more volatility. However, this time, the market's momentum was driven by the possibility of a larger Selic rate decrease than previously forecasted. Lower rates benefit domestic-focused companies sensitive to interest rates, many of which are small cap stocks.
Whether this scenario materializes depends on credible fiscal adjustments, but many managers are anticipating the trade by purchasing stocks that have been dormant for years. In the last three sessions, the stocks that rose the most were Quero-Quero (47%), Movida (33%), Ecorodovias (31%), Pague Menos (31%), Simpar (28%), Vamos (27%), and Grupo SBF (26%), according to a survey by Elos Ayta.
The flow towards small caps is coming from all sides, mainly driven by local funds investing proceeds, rotating out of large caps for smaller companies, and receiving some outside resources, albeit timidly. Ferreira explained that this movement has a ceiling because it depends on how much the manager can maneuver within the portfolio.
Foreign investment in domestic-focused stocks has also increased in recent days, albeit limited due to low liquidity in these shares. Foreign investors entered the B3 on Monday, when external flow reached a record R$10 billion for a single day, primarily purchasing the most traded stocks through indices, which pushed the Ibovespa up 7.7%.
The following day, that flow fell to R$1 billion. Foreign investors entered the B3 on Monday, when external flow reached a record R$10 billion for a single day, primarily purchasing the most traded stocks through indices, which pushed the Ibovespa up 7.7%. The next day, that flow fell to R$1 billion. "The foreigner said he wouldn't do anything until after the election results, but he did everything he wanted the moment after the first vote," another manager observed.
On Monday, stocks already at all-time highs outperformed the index, such as BTG Pactual (+23%), B3 (+22%) and Itaú (+10%). Since then, some of those gains have been returned. Among stocks that fell this week, are those of commodity and export companies impacted by a stronger currency, such as Embraer (-9%), Suzano (-5%) and Vale (-5%).
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
