Nate Silver’s Forecast Changes For Democrats—Seats Most Likely to Flip
The Silver Bulletin's forecast gives the party a 73.9 percent chance of winning the Senate as of Tuesday, up noticeably from 50.6 percent a month prior.
The Democratic Party's prospects for gaining control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections have improved, according to the latest predictions from election forecasters. The Silver Bulletin's FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast now gives Democrats a 73.9 percent chance of winning the Senate, up from 50.6 percent a month earlier.
For the House of Representatives, Democrats have a 92.9 percent chance of victory, compared to an 82.7 percent probability last month. This marks a significant shift in the odds since mid-September, when Newsweek reported the Democrats' chances of taking control of the Senate at 58.6 percent.
While President Donald Trump is not a candidate, midterm elections are often seen as a referendum on the incumbent president's performance, usually resulting in the president's party losing ground in Congress. Trump had encouraged Republican supporters to "pretend that I’m on the ballot" as the GOP aims to maintain its majorities in the House and Senate.
According to the Silver Bulletin's simulations, Democrats are expected to gain an average of five Senate seats in November. The most likely races for a Democratic pick-up are in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Maine, and Alaska. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper has a 95.3 percent chance of defeating Republican Thom Tillis, who announced last year he wouldn't seek re-election.
Republican Michael Whatley has only a 4.7 percent chance of victory. Democrats have not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades, making it a 50-50 state.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico has a 74.3 percent chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton, who was backed by Trump and defeated Democratic incumbent Senator John Cornyn to win the Republican nomination. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown has a 73.9 percent chance of winning against incumbent Republican Jon Husted, while Democrat Troy Jackson is favored in Maine with a 70.6 percent chance of victory.
Democrat Mary Peltola also has a 64.6 percent probability of winning Alaska's race against incumbent Republican Senator Daniel Sullivan.
Written by urgent.news from Newsweek's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
