Molybdenum heads for 6th straight deficit, record prices: BMO
As no new projects exist to lift output in the short term, the trend should continue in 2027, BMO says.
Molybdenum, a critical metal used to enhance steel's strength and resistance to heat and corrosion, faces a sixth consecutive supply deficit in 2027, according to BMO Capital Markets. The metal's demand grew by 8.5% to 358.2 million pounds in the first half of 2025, while production dipped by 0.6% to 335.6 million pounds, resulting in a 22.6-million-pound shortfall.
Global prices have surged 43% since January 1, reaching $41.97 per pound. No new projects are expected to increase output in the near term, leading BMO analysts George Heppel, Raj Ray, and Helen Amos to predict that molybdenum prices will reach record highs. China, the primary global supplier, has imposed export restrictions since February 2025 following U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
While Myanmar's incremental shipments may offer slight relief, they are unlikely to significantly alter the supply-demand balance. Molybdenum's unique properties make it indispensable for various industries, including aerospace, energy, and defense, leaving limited alternatives to replace it. As a result, significant demand curtailment would require much higher prices than historically observed.
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