Mexican Peso: Watching support for reversal signal against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts report USD/MXN has extended its rebound after reclaiming the 200-day moving average near 17.40 and posting an interim high around 18.43. A brief pullback is underway, with attention on whether a base forms for a more durable reversal. First support at 17.68 and the 200-DMA at 17.40 are key downside levels to monitor.
The Mexican Peso maintained its position on Wednesday, staying close to the opening price against the US Dollar, after the Federal Reserve's minutes indicated further rate hikes were expected. The USD/MXN pair traded at 17.98, nearly unchanged from the previous level. The Mexican currency rebounded after losing over 7% since September 21, following a peak of 18.43.
The drop in the Peso was mainly due to high US Treasury yields and increased speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, stemming from energy price increases. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) kept interest rates steady in response to the Fed's decision. Economists forecast that Mexico's interest rates will stay at 6.50% through 2027, barring any major changes.
Fed members view September's rate hike as precautionary and a possible start of a tightening cycle to address high inflation, which has remained above the 2% target for five years. Fed officials anticipate another rate increase by year-end, with only a small percentage expecting an increase at this time. Market data shows an 81% probability of no Fed rate hike this month, while only 19% expect an increase.
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