India bonds may weaken mildly after RBI hike; 10-year yield seen near 7.25%
MUMBAI: Indian government bonds may continue to weaken in early deals on Thursday, a day after the central bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly four years and shifted its stance to suggest that more hikes were likely. The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield may trade in a 7.21%-7.25% band, a trader with a primary dealership said, after ending at 7.2410% on Wednesday. Bond yields…
On the day of India's first interest rate hike in nearly four years, government bonds may experience a slight decline, according to traders. The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 7.21% and 7.25%, down from its previous close of 7.2410% on Wednesday. Analysts predict the 10-year benchmark will stabilize around 7.25%.
The Reserve Bank of India increased its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and shifted its stance to "calibrated tightening" from "neutral", signifying a data-driven approach rather than a predetermined one. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra clarified that the change indicates a "milder form of tightening" aimed at keeping real rates positive, rather than significantly tightening financial conditions.
With over 100 basis points of hikes already priced in, most yield adjustments are anticipated to be completed. The central bank did not announce additional measures to reduce surplus liquidity in the banking system, which was interpreted positively for bonds. In September, the RBI sold bonds worth 1 trillion rupees, the largest in at least a decade.
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