Immobilien: Teure Kredite – so wirken höhere Zinsen in Deutschland und den USA

In Germany and the United States, rising interest rates on mortgage loans are curbing the fragile recovery trends in the real estate sector. In Germany, ten-year building financing costs have once again risen significantly above the four percent mark. Oliver Kohnen, CEO of the financing intermediary Baufi24, states that for a ten-year interest commitment, the current rate is around 4.5 percent, while for twenty-year commitment, it has approached the five percent threshold.

In the United States, the burden is even more severe, with mortgage rates hitting the highest level in almost three years, impeding many Americans from purchasing homes. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage last week climbed to 7.49 percent, the highest value since November 2023.

This increase in interest rates arrives at an unfavorable time for the German residential market. After a price decline starting in 2022, many housing prices have stabilized, but now rising financing costs make purchasing property unaffordable for many. The effect can be illustrated simply: a buyer taking out a 400,000 euro loan would pay 12,000 euros annually in interest at a 3 percent rate, but this would rise to 18,000 euros at a 4.5 percent rate, an additional 500 euros per month.

Homebuyers who cannot bear higher costs would have to finance a lower real estate price. Gesa Crockford, CEO of the real estate intermediary Immoscout24, says that higher financing costs are significantly shifting demand: particularly in the metro areas, buyers are increasingly leaning towards the rental market. Directly, rising interest rates affect professional investors, as they compete with government bonds and other fixed-income securities for investor interest.

If yields rise, real estate must offer higher returns. With stagnant rents, this can primarily be achieved through lower purchase prices. However, the upward trend in the German real estate investment market since 2025 has lost considerable momentum. Residential market transactions, for example, stagnated in the third quarter of this year at nearly 23.9 billion euros, compared to a 15 percent increase in the first half.

The development is particularly problematic for developers, who often have to finance land purchases and construction costs to a significant extent through loans. Rising interest rates, while project developers are financing their own purchases, place projects under pressure from two sides. In the United States, the impact of the interest rate hike is even more pronounced.

Not only are interest rates very high, but house prices have also risen significantly over the past three years. Last year, median home prices reached a record high according to National Association of Realtors (NAR) data. At the same time, potential buyers can no longer afford the high interest rates of over seven percent. The market is therefore stuck: many buyers cannot or do not want to purchase at the current valuations.

JP Morgan Chase analysts recently summarized the current development in a study: "The U.S. housing market faces an increasing affordability crisis, pushing homeownership out of reach for many customers." The situation is especially critical in the American commercial real estate market, where many mortgages previously secured at much lower interest rates need to be refinanced.

Property owners of less sought-after office buildings are facing a double problem: their property values have fallen, and at the same time, it is more expensive to acquire new financing.