How expanded Japan-US military exercises could complicate PLA planning over Taiwan

Japan and the United States will conduct extensive military drills near Taiwan this month, involving thousands of personnel, vehicles, ships, and aircraft. These exercises aim to enhance their ability to respond to potential threats from China, particularly in relation to Taiwan and the East China Sea. The drills, known as Keen Sword 27, include the deployment of advanced anti-ship missile systems and air defense networks to the island of Yonaguni, located just over 100 kilometers from Taiwan.

This deployment is seen as a test of Japan's capabilities to quickly move forces and equipment to a location near Taiwan, potentially complicating the planning of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the event of a conflict. The involvement of multiple countries, including France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and the Philippines, in these exercises highlights the growing US-Japan alliance and the broader regional security architecture.

While experts acknowledge that such deployments may not directly halt a Chinese military operation, they argue that they could raise the risk of drawing Japanese and US troops into any conflict, thereby affecting Beijing's strategic calculations.