European gas rallies as Persian Gulf shipping strikes counter storage injection

European wholesale natural gas futures prices surged on Thursday as military attacks on commercial shipping in Middle Eastern waterways sparked a rise in geopolitical risk concerns in energy markets. Prices climbed 2.8% to 80.20 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) and jumped 3.0% to 199.40 pence per therm in the United Kingdom. Maritime security agencies reported a sharp uptick in drone and missile strikes against commercial tankers and energy vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes.

This intensifying campaign wiped out the market's initial calm and forced trading desks to factor in persistent risk premiums. Heightened war-risk insurance premiums and potential rerouting of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes put Western European regasification schedules at risk. While crude oil shipments have found alternate routes, seaborne LNG logistics are lagging, making regional gas markets extremely sensitive to transit disruptions.

However, a cushion of stored gas supplies provides some relief to the geopolitical worries. European Union underground natural gas storage facilities are currently 72.83% full, an increase from 66% a month ago. But with European weather forecasts predicting lower temperatures and an early onset of heating demand, storage levels are still below last year's historical averages. This leaves the market with little buffer if early winter cold spells hit.