El crudo se dispara un 4% por los ataques en Ormuz

Oil prices surged by 4% after attacks in the Strait of Ormuz, according to recent reports. The price of Brent crude, which serves as a benchmark in Europe, rose to $103.8 per barrel, following the news that crude trade through the Strait of Ormuz had been disrupted by Iranian attacks on commercial ships in recent days, reaching the highest levels since the war began in February.

The Strait of Ormuz saw its annual peak in attacks against tankers passing through its waters, according to data released by the UK Maritime Trade Operations Agency (UKMTO) on October 4th. Between September 28th and October 4th, there were ten attacks on tanker vessels passing through the passage, the highest number of such incidents this year, according to consulting firm Kpler.

This has resulted in a 27% drop in oil transit through this route compared to the peak levels reached during the Iran-Iraq war, amounting to 17 million barrels. Different sources indicate that around 13 million barrels of crude traverse the Strait of Ormuz daily on average, compared to over 20 million barrels transported before the outbreak of conflict.

Moreover, between 4 and 7 oil and gas tanker crossings occur daily, while prior to the conflict, more than a hundred ships of various types used to traverse the Strait. Part of this decline can be attributed to shipping companies seeking alternative routes to Ormuz, primarily from terminals on the coast of Oman and in the Red Sea.

Indeed, approximately 40% of oil exports in the region have found alternative routes to bypass Ormuz. This may have helped maintain overall export volumes in the Middle East at levels close to pre-war levels in the United States and Israel against Iran. Although the attacks by Yemeni Houthis on Saudi facilities in the Red Sea caused a significant drop in exports to 3.5 million barrels per day, this situation seems to have eased, with Riyadh now pumping 6 million barrels, representing 80% of its total capacity, despite the Houthis' continued attacks on the kingdom.

However, the situation remains worrying. On the one hand, it implies that Houthi rebels, allies of Iran, hold the key to oil, and while they have not yet managed to shut off the tap, this does not mean they will not succeed. On the other hand, the U.S. plan to keep a safe channel open makes matters worse, as it provides no certainty to shipping companies.

Nevertheless, Emmanuel Belostrino, Kpler's global crude and geopolitical data manager, remains moderately optimistic about the future. The risk is already reflected in the prices, the market has not been paralyzed, and they expect oil transit through Ormuz to normalize before reaching a political agreement, according to the report.