EIA: Mixed outlook for energy expenditures this winter
We expect energy expenditures this winter to vary because of diverging trends in energy prices among fuels and regional variation in forecast temperatures. We expect that lower prices for natural gas and propane will drive decreases in expenditures this year for the half of U.S. households heating with those fuels. Higher prices for electricity and ...
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a mixed outlook for energy expenditures this winter, driven by fluctuations in fuel prices and regional variations in temperature forecasts. Lower natural gas and propane prices are expected to lead to decreased spending for half of U.S. households utilizing those fuels for heating, while higher electricity and heating oil prices will result in increased expenditures for households relying on those energy sources.
Despite the EIA anticipating national average temperatures to mirror last winter, they predict warmer temperatures in the Northeast due to last year's cold winter, and much colder temperatures in the West following an unusually warm winter in 2025. Homes in the Northeast, which predominantly use heating oil as their primary heating fuel (about 3% of U.S. homes), may face the most significant increase in spending, with a projected 21% rise in heating oil costs compared to last winter.
This surge is attributed to rising global distillate prices, with the EIA forecasting heating oil to average 34% higher this winter than last. However, warmer-than-expected temperatures may mitigate some of this price increase. More than 40% of U.S. homes using electricity for heating are expected to see a 4% average rise in electricity bills.
Expenditures are projected to decline by 9% for homes using natural gas and 3% for those using propane. Global distillate fuel production, including heating oil, has declined due to reduced refining activity, leading to higher international prices. This price surge impacts both the cost of importing distillate into the United States and the demand for U.S.-exported distillate.
In the first seven months of 2026, U.S. distillate exports surged 20% compared to the same period last year, with a majority of the increase heading to Europe. With higher costs for U.S. imports and increased demand for exports, U.S. distillate fuel stocks are expected to be about 11% below the five-year average heading into winter.
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