Economists see food, oil stoking India’s September inflation

India's consumer inflation likely accelerated in September, with economists predicting it may approach the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India's 2%-6% target range. This surge was primarily driven by rising energy costs and elevated food prices, according to a Reuters poll of 41 economists. Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $100 a barrel, while a poor monsoon season has contributed to surging food costs. Food and beverages constitute around 40% of India's consumer price index basket.

The poll forecast that inflation, measured by the annual change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), could have risen to 5.40% in September from 4.82% in August. Forecasts ranged from 4.90% to 5.90%. This would mark the fourth consecutive month that inflation has stayed above the RBI's 4% medium-term target, and the highest this year under the current series.

Economists believe energy prices are starting to impact other sectors of the CPI, not just transportation. However, the situation may be somewhat alleviated by the fact that inflation has been relatively subdued compared to previous years. Core inflation, which excludes volatile components like food and fuel, is expected to have risen to 4.3% in September. However, the lack of official core inflation data adds uncertainty.

A weaker rupee, which has depreciated by about 7% against the dollar and is near its all-time low, adds another layer of inflation risk for India, a heavily import-dependent economy. While the Reserve Bank of India has remained cautious about raising rates, economists suggest that more aggressive policy tightening is likely to follow.