Delta cuts annual profit forecast as fuel bill rises by $6bn

Delta Air Lines has reduced its annual profit forecast by nearly a quarter due to soaring fuel expenses. The rise in jet fuel costs is expected to add $6 billion to the airline's 2026 bill. The carrier's shares fell 3.5% in pre-market trading after the profit cut, which is the first such reduction this year. Delta's fuel expenses surged 62% in the third quarter to $4.1 billion, surpassing its July forecast by over $500 million.

The increase is attributed to surging fuel prices worldwide, driven by the Iran war, which has significantly affected jet fuel costs. The downgrade highlights the industry's ongoing challenge, with analysts questioning whether passengers will accept further fare hikes if fuel prices remain high. Delta now anticipates adjusted annual earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 per share, down from the July forecast of $6.50 to $7.50.

Third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share missed analysts' average estimate of $1.76. The airline's operating margin declined to 9.4% from 11.1%. Rivals United Airlines, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines are expected to report earnings later in the month. The company's Monroe refinery in Philadelphia, which processes crude oil into jet fuel, provides a partial offset, reducing fuel costs by an estimated $700 million annually.

However, the refinery's impact is limited by refining margins and potential losses when margins weaken. Despite the refinery benefit, Delta expects its fuel costs to remain elevated, with an expected cost of $4.25 per gallon in the fourth quarter, up from $3.61 in the third quarter.