Cómo descifrar el impacto de la deuda y el dólar sobre el bitcoin

Debt and the US dollar continue to influence the course of the crypto market, according to analysts. Bitcoin exhibits very unstable and sometimes changing correlations with traditional assets such as public debt and the dollar, as witnessed in the past two months. The surge in bitcoin's price began around mid-August, coinciding with increased long-term U.S. Treasury bond purchases, according to Manuel Pinto, an investment manager at XTB.

However, this correlation does not necessarily imply that the rebates cause the rally; it merely reflects the strong appetite for riskier assets during deteriorating bond conditions. In September, a positive correlation emerged between U.S. public debt interest and bitcoin's price. The interest rate on a ten-year U.S. bond reached its highest monthly increase since October 2024, and bitcoin also increased by 6.4%.

Persistent public debt growth, higher deficits, or a loss of trust in fiat currencies may make bitcoin an attractive asset, especially during periods of persistently increasing public debt, deficits, or loss of confidence in fiat currencies, explains Rubén Ayuso, manager of the A&G Global Inverstors Criptomonedas FIL fund. While a rise in public debt interest can sometimes benefit bitcoin by acting as a safe haven, it can also negatively impact the cryptocurrency when it indicates a tightening of financial conditions, higher real yields, and reduced liquidity.

Bitcoin's dual nature means it can be both a risk asset and a safe haven, depending on the market context. This duality makes bitcoin one of the most unstable assets in terms of correlation.