College football Week 6 picks, odds: My 2 best bets for this weekend's games

This weekend's college football games feature two standout matchups that are catching the markets' attention. First up, South Carolina takes on No. 16 Florida in a game priced at 59.5 points. The Gators have been averaging an impressive 46.2 points per game, with previous contests seeing totals of 87, 83, and 80 points. Meanwhile, Florida's running game has been a force, with quarterback Jadan Baugh running for 147 yards on 17 carries against Kentucky.

Despite Florida's struggles in the Missouri game, the market has adjusted the total from 62 to 59.5 points. South Carolina has been strong in rushing defense, allowing just 140 yards to any team this season, and our model suggests they earn about three additional points per game than their results indicate. Overall, our pick is a Florida victory by five points, with the spread set at 30-25.

Second, we have App State facing Old Dominion with a 9.5-point favorite and a projected score of 30-19. Despite App State's recent struggles, including a 21-point deficit against NC State, their defense ranks relatively low, allowing 41 points in their last game. The weather forecast for this game in Gainesville is cool and rainy, with a high chance of precipitation.

This could impact the total, which has already been revised from 51.5 to 48.5. With Old Dominion's relatively weak offense and App State's strong ball control, we endorse the 9.5-point spread at -105 odds.