Can Africa’s biggest electrification drive keep its promise?

In June 2024, the World Bank Group and the African Development Bank (AfDB) announced that the electrification initiative "Mission 300" had connected 50 million people to electricity across 40 African countries. This marks progress that is nearly double the pace from the initiative's launch, but leaves 250 million people still without access in just over three years. The initiative aims to deliver reliable power to 300 million more sub-Saharan Africans by 2030.

Progress has been most rapid in Tanzania (7.5 million people connected), Ethiopia (4.6 million) and Nigeria (4.5 million). However, the announcement has raised questions as the World Bank does not publish village- or town-level raw connection data, and neither does it explain what counts as a connection. The AfDB clarified that the 50 million figure counts new household connections established since July 2023, and includes a mix of grid extensions, renewable-energy mini-grids, and standalone solar home systems.

Connections do not include solar lanterns, informal or temporary connections, and meter replacements.

While the AfDB said both banks estimate the progress figure by multiplying verified household connections by each country's official average household size, it is unclear how much of the 50 million milestone reflects new infrastructure built due to Mission 300 versus pre-existing national projects already underway. Researchers at the University of Bristol and the University of Oxford argue that there is insufficient public data to fully verify the milestone and question whether the figure reflects people actually using the infrastructure.