Australian house price falls track Kiwi housing crash
As falling housing prices continue to spread to a growing share of the nation’s housing markets, downward revisions to price performance in various locales increasingly feel like par for the course. When Cotality released the latest revised housing price data at the start of the month, it revealed that housing price falls at a five-capital-city The post Australian house price falls track Kiwi…
As housing prices continue to decline in various Australian cities, recent downward revisions to the data have revealed a more severe contraction than initially estimated. According to Cotality's latest revised housing price data, the aggregate housing price decline across five major capital cities has been revised down to over 6.5%. This article explores the extent of these price falls in each city, as well as the impact of revisions on their trajectory.
The article highlights the importance of examining earlier data to gain a more accurate understanding of the current housing price decline in Australia. By comparing the first four months of the recent decline (from April 10th to August 10th) to the first four months of the Kiwi housing crash (November 2021 to March 2022), it is found that the national price fall in New Zealand was 4.44%, while in Australia, it was 4.23%.
Major markets like Auckland and Wellington are expected to fall even further, with prices in Auckland falling by 25% and in Wellington by 30%.
The article concludes by discussing the potential factors that could exacerbate Australia's housing price decline. These include a significant drop in property investor demand, further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank, and the looming risk of energy price-driven inflation and fuel shortages due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Ultimately, the article suggests that Australia's housing market may not escape the downward trajectory as easily as initially hoped, potentially following a similar path to Canada and New Zealand.
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