WTI Price Forecast: Sticks to gains near $89.50; bulls seem hesitant below 200-SMA on H4

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are holding near the $89.50 level after gaining ground for two days straight. While there has been some follow-through buying, traders remain cautious due to the price being below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the H4 chart. Geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis pose a risk to supply, along with a storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, which could impact US energy production and refining facilities.

Technical indicators suggest that oil prices are currently neutral to slightly positive, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turning positive and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 50.55. Price action is capped near the 200-day SMA at $90.66, with further resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $91.05 and a stronger barrier at the 23.6% retracement near $95.25.

Support is found at the 50% retracement of the broader upswing at $87.66, with deeper structural levels at the 61.8% retracement at $84.27 and lower at $79.44 and $73.29. Supply and demand factors, geopolitical events, OPEC decisions, the US Dollar's value, and inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) all play a role in determining WTI oil prices.