WHAT IF ATIKU TURNS THE TABLE IN JANUARY 2027?
TUNDE OLUSUNLE argues against the optimistic projection by The Economist in the 2027 elections With just over three months to go until Nigerians vote in the 2027 general elections, the
As the 2027 general elections approach, the optimistic projection made by The Economist that Nigerians will re-elect President Bola Tinubu is beginning to falter. The Economist's argument rests on three assumptions: incumbency brings victory, a divided opposition is defeated, and low voter turnout ensures victory through money and machinery. However, recent events in Lagos and Borno suggest otherwise.
In Lagos, Tinubu's return from a month-long trip received a hostile reception marked by boos and chants from young Nigerians. This is a sharp contrast to the warm welcome he once received. The underlying cause of this shift lies in the North, where Borno remains gripped by an insurgency that has led to extortion, abductions, and economic hardship. The World Food Programme reports malnutrition at its highest in ten years, and a Save the Children clinic noted a sharp spike in severely malnourished babies and anemic mothers.
In Maiduguri, a grain trader mentioned leaving for Chad, Cameroon, or Ghana due to the lack of food and economic opportunities. This bleak situation has fueled resentment towards Tinubu's policies, as evidenced by a letter written by Senator Babafemi Ojudu, a longtime ally of Tinubu. Ojudu highlighted how hardship has become the defining experience of many Nigerians and stressed the need for tangible progress in terms of food, education, and healthcare.
Atiku Abubakar, the main opposition candidate, has seized this opportunity to challenge Tinubu. He is seen as a native son of northern Nigeria with a deep understanding of the region's challenges. His four pillars of challenge include nostalgia for the Obasanjo-Atiku years, the arithmetic of political arithmetic, the symbolism of presence versus absence, and Atiku's finality.
As Borno shifts from supporting Tinubu to backing Atiku, a historic mood swing is seen against the APC. If Tinubu cannot regain his organic base in the North-East, Atiku's challenge becomes more potent, with voters feeling that they "will fight back with the ballot."
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