Tres valores del Ibex que pueden ser movidos por las 'midterms' de EEUU

The Ibex 35 index encompasses stocks that could be influenced by the upcoming U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3rd. These elections have garnered significant attention from markets due to the polarized political climate in the United States and concerns over the country's high debt levels. Recent polls indicate a strong likelihood of Democratic Party victory in these mid-term elections, potentially granting them control over the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate as well.

This scenario would place President Donald Trump directly in opposition to a Democratic-controlled Congress.

Analysts from Jefferies caution that while mid-term elections are typically not macroeconomic events, this particular scenario could impact fiscal policies, potential reactions from a more assertive Trump administration, and the pace of artificial intelligence development. They note that under Democratic control, certain tax increases might help curb debt costs, but also suggest new barriers to the deployment of data centers. Jefferies believes these effects could even extend to European markets.

Historically, Euro Stoxx 600 has shown positive performance in October during presidential midterms, with an average increase of 3.5%. However, November often sees stagnation, followed by a 1.1% decline in December. This year, however, the pattern may deviate, making it potentially more useful than traditional historical analysis for forecasting election impacts on businesses.

To this end, Jefferies has compiled two lists: one of 37 European companies that could benefit from a Democratic win, and another of 33 that might suffer losses.

Among the beneficiaries is ArcelorMittal, a steel company, which Jefferies believes would benefit from reduced US-Canada and US-Mexico commercial tensions under Democratic leadership. Fluidra, a maker of swimming pools, could also see a boost due to lower debt costs potentially encouraging consumer spending on their products. On the other hand, ACS is listed among the companies that may suffer, due to apprehension about a slowdown in data center construction, a significant focus for this company.

Other European stocks that benefit from a Democratic victory include Airbus, VW, Diageo, Vestas, Bridgepoint, EQT, EDP Renovaveis, Nordex, and RWE. Conversely, Legrand, L'Oreal, Skanska, and Novartis are among the companies expected to face challenges.