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Three years after October 7 attacks, Israel's economy shows its strength

After shrinking briefly in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attacks, Israel's GDP is predicted to grow by 4 percent this year. The country's tech sector – specifically its defence startups – has played a big part in this performance but challenges, notably demographic ones, are on the horizon. Meanwhile, the destruction caused by Israel's war in Gaza has reduced GDP per capita in the…

Three years after October 7 attacks, Israel's economy shows its strength

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Your backtest beat a t-test. Would it beat a placebo?

You test 11 moving-average crossovers on five years of daily prices. The best one has a Sharpe of 1.2, and a t-test on its returns says p = 0.01. Is it real?

  • T-test shows statistical significance in 10.9% to 78.9% of markets
  • Placebo test stays within 4.6% to 5.5% false positive range
  • Study warns tests may confuse skill with random fluctuations

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