The Fed Is Embarking on a Rate-Hike Cycle. History Says This Is How the Market Will React.
The market tends to pull back in the first six and 12 months after the Fed begins hiking.
Last month, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee unanimously raised its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, by a quarter percentage point. This move is widely anticipated to be the first of several in the current cycle, with futures traders pricing in one to two more quarter-point hikes by year-end, and several more in 2027.
The yield on the two-year Treasury note, a yield particularly sensitive to the Fed's rate decisions, has climbed to 4.82%, signaling the bond market's expectation of additional rate hikes over the next year. Furthermore, the Fed's policymakers have set projections indicating further rate hikes, suggesting a comprehensive rate-hiking cycle.
For investors, the critical question now is: How will the stock market respond to this anticipated rate-hiking cycle?
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