Southwest monsoon withdrawal advances, rainfall to continue in several states
The withdrawal typically starts from western Rajasthan in September before gradually progressing across northwest and central India, and subsequently moving toward the southern peninsula and eastern regions.
The southwest monsoon is expected to withdraw from additional regions in Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and north interior Karnataka within the next two to three days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon withdrawal line presently spans parts of Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka.
Typically, the southwest monsoon withdrawal begins in western Rajasthan in September, gradually spreading across northwest and central India, before moving towards southern peninsula and eastern regions. However, the rate of withdrawal is contingent upon prevailing rainfall and atmospheric conditions.
Policymakers and agricultural markets are closely monitoring this development as the southwest monsoon accounts for roughly 70% of India's annual rainfall, significantly impacting farm output, reservoir levels, and rural economic activity.
Several areas in northwest India, including Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad, are forecasted to receive rainfall over the forthcoming week, with varying intensity levels. Rainfall activity is anticipated to become isolated or scattered on specific dates across Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi region, Punjab, and West Uttar Pradesh.
Central and eastern India are also expected to receive rainfall over the subsequent days, with Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh potentially experiencing isolated to scattered rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds. Bihar and Odisha may witness isolated to scattered rainfall, while Jharkhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim could encounter fairly widespread to widespread rainfall.
The Andaman & Nicobar Islands are also anticipated to receive rainfall, with showers forecasted to be fairly widespread to widespread from 9-13 October. In south peninsular India, rainfall activity is expected to remain significant, with Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Coastal Karnataka, and South Interior Karnataka likely to experience varying degrees of rainfall throughout the mentioned period.
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