Polish Zloty: Downtrend eyes 4.48 on firm support – Societe Generale

Societe Generale's Central and Eastern European team anticipates the National Bank of Poland to maintain rates at 3.75% today, with Governor Glapiński anticipated to highlight inflation risks and signal potential November hikes. The hawkish stance may offer some Polish Zloty (PLN) support, but the pair is projected to stay above 4.35 due to geopolitical and external risks.

EUR/PLN has climbed toward the 4.40/4.41 resistance level. While no signs of a deep pullback are evident, the August peak of 4.34 could act as a vital support level, with a break below indicating a possible deeper decline. A surge above 4.40/4.41 might initiate a larger uptrend toward 4.45 and 4.48. In the CEE region, the NBP is expected to remain steady at 3.75% this afternoon.

Inflation has surpassed the upper band of the NBP tolerance band at 4% in September, but today's meeting could pave the way for tighter monetary policy. Tomorrow, Governor Glapiński is expected to express growing apprehension over inflation risks and prepare markets for a potential November hike.