Oil prices remain volatile amid Hormuz risks, Gulf export recovery — Brent crude stays at $100, WTI at $88.83 per barrel

Oil markets remained unstable on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $88.83 per barrel, marking a 0.62% increase, and Brent crude sitting at $100.20, down 0.38%. Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude was also up, at $106.69, a 0.47% gain. The mixed outcomes are attributed to a balance between increased Middle Eastern oil flows and ongoing security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent has had difficulty declining below $100, while WTI has plummeted from $105.83 on September 15, 2026, to the current price of $88.83. Despite the resurgence in Gulf crude exports, price volatility persists due to high freight rates, war-risk insurance costs, and inefficient alternate shipping routes. Tanker assaults around Hormuz contribute to a geopolitical premium embedded in prices.

Recent maritime data highlights the gravity of the Hormuz risks. Between September 28 and October 5, at least 12 attacks, attempted attacks, or harassment incidents involving oil, LNG, and LPG tankers were documented in the area. This marks the highest weekly tally since the Iran war commenced. For instance, a Panama-flagged tanker, the On Peace, suffered an injury to 12 crew members when an unidentified projectile struck it.

Meanwhile, Gulf producers have managed to recover substantial export volumes through pipelines, alternative routes, and ship-to-ship transfers. According to Kpler, Gulf crude and condensate exports, excluding Iran, totaled at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September, nearly equaling the pre-war average. However, only about 60% of these shipments passed through Hormuz, compared to 83% before the war began.