Nigeria: Fact-Checking 2026 Independence Day Claims By Nigerian President Bola Tinubu

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu made claims about the country's economic growth, inflation, foreign reserves, and investment during the 66th Independence Day celebrations on October 1, 2026. Fact-checkers from Africa Check examined these claims and found that:

1. Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.16% in the first six months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, making the president's claim about growth accurate.

2. Both the oil and non-oil sectors contributed to growth, but the oil sector was more volatile than Tinubu claimed.

3. Nigeria's non-oil exports rose to $6.1 billion in 2025, the highest documented value in the country's history.

4. Crude oil theft decreased significantly, falling from 37.6 million barrels in 2021 to 4.1 million barrels in 2024.

5. Inflation fell from a peak of 34.80% in December 2024 to 15.39% in August 2026, but the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may have mechanically lowered the reported inflation rate.

6. Foreign exchange reserves increased from $35.1 billion in May 2023 to $54.9 billion as of September 2026, a 56% rise.

7. Foreign direct investment (FDI) rose from $377 million in 2023 to $923 million in 2025, with the latest available data for 2026 covering only the first quarter, when Nigeria received $135.08 million.