Is it too early to look at Premier League table?

Just five games into the Premier League season, it might seem premature to focus on the table, but it could be more settled than expected. Manchester City and Arsenal are likely to top the league, barring any points deductions or sanctions against City. However, questions remain about whether Brentford will secure a European spot, Hull will avoid relegation, and Tottenham will weather another relegation fight. Recent history suggests that these outcomes are probable.

The Premier League table appears settled after five games, with 13 of the 20 teams finishing within four places of their initial positions (65%). This trend is consistent across the last ten seasons, with 138 out of 200 teams finishing within four places of where they were after five games. Only 12 teams, however, shifted by more than nine places in the same period. The top spot, on the other hand, is less predictable; only one team has won the title after having five wins in their first five games in the past six seasons.

Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool, who led the table with a perfect five-game record in their respective seasons, failed to capitalize on their strong start. Conversely, Man City, despite winning their first five games, did not secure the title in any of the past four seasons. Thus, Man City or Arsenal are likely to lift the trophy, barring potential punishments for their recent misconduct.

The Premier League's top eight after five games has remained unchanged in the top eight positions for the last two campaigns, while the top six and top seven have also remained constant in the past two seasons. However, being bottom of the table is a more significant indicator of future trouble. Tottenham, currently in the relegation zone, has been relegated in the last seven seasons after finishing just one place above the drop.

Being at the bottom hasn't always been such a bad omen: in the past eight seasons, one of the six teams at the bottom after five games has avoided relegation, as Tottenham did in 2008-09.