Indonesian Rupiah holds losses as Foreign Reserves slip in September

The Indonesian Rupiah experienced declines as Foreign Reserves decreased in September 2026. The USD/IDR pair traded around 17,900 during European hours, staying above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average but below the nine-day EMA. Reserve assets fell slightly to USD 146.3 billion, marking a marginally lower figure compared to the five-month high of USD 146.5 billion in August.

Despite this minor dip, Indonesia's reserve assets were equivalent to 5.3 months of imports, which is still well above the international adequacy benchmark of three months. Bank Indonesia affirmed that the current reserve level is sufficient to strengthen external sector resilience and maintain macroeconomic and financial stability.

The USD/IDR pair appreciated as the US Dollar rose due to higher crude oil prices and persistent Middle East supply risks, which kept inflationary concerns and rate-hike expectations alive. However, the Greenback's upside may be limited by last week's weaker US labor market data, easing expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index stood at 52.81, showing steady buying interest, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 137.91 indicated a more subdued Fed-related environment. Immediate resistance was noted at the nine-day EMA around 17,912.81, while support was found at the latest close of 17,903.20 and the 50-day EMA at 17,851.51.

If price falls below the latter level, it could weaken the bullish trend and expose deeper retracements. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 0.34 points to 137.91, signifying a modest hawkish shift that aligns with the above-baseline speech score in the FXS Speechtracker. A "risk-on" market sees investors optimistic about the future, favoring riskier assets.

Conversely, a "risk-off" market occurs when investors become cautious, buying safer assets like government bonds, gold, and safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc.