How Quebec Separatists Win Poses New Challenge for Carney Amid Trump Trade War

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney faces a new challenge as Quebec's separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) secured a win in the province's provincial election on October 10, 2025. The PQ's victory, just two weeks before Alberta's vote on Oct. 19, has complicated Carney's efforts to maintain unity amid a trade war with the United States.

PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon pledged a referendum on Quebec independence if Trump remains President, citing the political turmoil caused by trade tensions. However, experts say holding such a referendum without a majority in Quebec's National Assembly would be difficult. Despite this, the threat of a separatist agenda complicates Carney's mission to promote a stronger Canada.

Carney congratulated Plamondon, emphasizing that "building a stronger Quebec is at the heart of our mission to build a stronger Canada." However, trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada collapsed in August, and Carney has met with provincial and territorial Premiers to strategize. Although 70% of Quebecers opposed independence as of Oct.

4, there are few outward signs of separatism. Carney remains popular in Quebec, with a recent poll showing a net impression of +46. Quebec has been particularly vulnerable to U.S. tariffs, with exports dropping by nearly 25% in 2025. Tensions between Carney and Plamondon may arise over the trade war, as the PQ has publicly opposed the federal approach of matching U.S. tariffs "dollar-for-dollar."

Alberta also poses a challenge for Carney, with a separatist referendum scheduled for Oct. 19, asking Albertans if they should remain a province of Canada or commence the legal process for a binding referendum on separation.