How closer China-US ties – and more Xi-Trump summits – could work in Iran’s favour

China and the United States – Iran's key partner and adversary – found more common ground over Tehran at the recent Washington summit, suggesting that increased head-of-state diplomacy could benefit Iran, according to analysts. Iran's agenda was present when Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in Beijing in May and again in Washington in September.

While the May summit statement did not mention Tehran directly, the September meeting saw China express more specificity, stating that China and the US agreed Iran must uphold its commitment against developing nuclear weapons. Both powers also agreed on eight points in their consensus, including that no country or organization should impose tolls on international waterways.

Xi Jinping reportedly urged the US and Iran to resolve their conflict through dialogue, which Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian thanked in a social media post. Two more summits between Trump and Xi are expected this year, providing opportunities for dialogue despite Iran's fears of becoming a bargaining chip in great-power competition.

Niu Xinchun, director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, noted that Beijing and Washington had "built greater alignment on Iran than before" due to the shift in China's statements between the two summits. A more stable US-China relationship benefits Iran as it provides Tehran with a potentially more effective channel to communicate with and influence Washington compared to regional powers.

However, Iran remains concerned about being used as a bargaining chip in major-power dealings, prompting its top diplomat to visit Beijing just days before Xi's US trip. Despite the Middle East conflict being in its seventh month and showing no sign of resolution, discussions between Xi and Trump are likely to include Iran. Senior researcher Ali Salehian from Tehran's Governance and Policy Think Tank believes Iran should not panic over increased US-China engagement, citing Beijing's consistent policy on the Middle East and Tehran's resilience to withstand political shifts.

Salehian sees more opportunities than threats for Iran in improved US-China diplomatic ties and notes that Beijing could become an economic anchor of stability in the Middle East.