Hormuz tanker attacks accelerate as oil flows recover

Recent days have witnessed a surge in attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to the waterway's activity level nearing prewar records. According to UK Maritime Trade Operations, Iran has launched nine attacks in the region this month, which equates to half of the total assaults reported for the entire September, both in the Hormuz Strait and the Persian Gulf.

The latest wave of aggression follows four assaults in the closing days of last month. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil and gas flows, has been a target of Iran throughout the Iran conflict. Past strikes have occasionally caused temporary reductions in shipments, but subsequent days typically see higher volumes that counterbalance these declines.

Maritime security experts and shipping industry professionals are cautious about whether this recent escalation in attacks will disrupt Hormuz shipments. The impact on seaborne gas flows, which have also experienced an uptick in recent weeks, is equally uncertain. Major consuming nations have announced plans to release millions of barrels from emergency stockpiles in an attempt to alleviate market pressures. US President Donald Trump has been exploring ways to reduce domestic fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections.

Tankers typically navigate a corridor near the Oman coast when passing through Hormuz, often with their digital signals deactivated. This makes it challenging for traders and analysts to monitor supply movements effectively. They must rely on satellite imagery and shipping data instead. Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been steadily increasing since early summer.

Last week, several Wall Street banks reported that shipments were nearing prewar levels. Top commodity traders, speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, estimated Middle East flows to be around 80% of prewar levels, helping Brent crude prices dip below $100 a barrel. The Straits of Hormuz's role in energy flows remains pivotal for oil and gas prices, particularly as the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter.