Harvard-Ökonom im Interview: Fürchten Sie eine neue Eurokrise, Herr Straub?
Die gestiegenen Anleiherenditen zeigen, wie nervös die Finanzmärkte sind. Ludwig Straub nennt vor seinem Auftritt beim Deutschland-Gipfel die Gründe – und erklärt die Folgen.
Harvard economist Ludwig Straub is quoted in WirtschaftsWoche stating he is particularly concerned about the situation in France. The French government has nearly exhausted its fiscal space and will find it increasingly difficult to take on new debt. Any additional euro of new borrowing would drive up borrowing costs for all other sovereign debt.
Straub explains that once a country's growth rate falls below the interest rate at which it can borrow, long-term budget deficits become impossible. Currently, France's 10-year bond yields are above 4.5%, while nominal GDP growth is around 2%. This is especially acute in France where 10-year bond yields are now at 4.5%, but nominal GDP growth is only about 2%.
Straub notes that debt levels are high globally, not just in Europe. This is due to elevated debt levels worldwide, coupled with energy supply shocks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Iran conflict. These factors are driving up inflation, which in turn is increasing bond yields. However, not all yield drivers are negative.
US investments in AI are boosting yields, prompting the US Federal Reserve to keep or raise interest rates higher. The report also mentions that the euro has depreciated against the US dollar, but the dollar remains an attractive currency for investors.
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