Exportprognose: Verband rechnet mit stärker steigenden Ausfuhren

German companies are expected to sell more goods abroad this year, despite geopolitical turbulence, according to the German Handels Association BGA. BGA President Dirk Jandura announced a projected export volume of €1.580 billion for 2026, which is 1% higher than the previous year. This represents a slight increase from the previous forecast of 0.6% growth.

In the first half of the year, German companies exported goods worth €817.8 billion, a 4% increase from the same period last year. However, the strong economy is not enough to overcome the current turmoil. Imports are projected to grow faster than exports, with BGA forecasting a €177 billion export surplus in 2026, up from around €200 billion the previous year.

The association also highlighted that the foreign trade with the US and China is challenging. US exports decreased by 6.1% in the first six months of the year, while exports to China only increased by 19% in July. Jandura emphasized that foreign trade must survive in an extremely volatile environment. More Chinese imports were recorded in the first six months of the year, growing by 8.8%.

The BGA suggests that Germany should look for new markets and more reliable trade partners due to the uncertainties surrounding the major export markets. The European Union and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) countries might form the core of a potential trade alliance. These CPTPP countries include Australia, Japan, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Peru, and Singapore.