EU hopefuls fear new safeguard plans could create second-class members

EU hopeful nations are worried that new safeguards aimed at stopping democratic regression after joining may result in second-class membership or empower existing member states to wield political leverage. These concerns emerged following proposals from the European Commission, which include a 15-year probationary period during which new members could lose voting rights if they commit serious breaches of EU values and rules.

Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Vsevolod Chentsov, expressed hope that the EU would ensure an ambitious, credible, and predictable accession process, but also emphasized the need for transitional arrangements to be justified, proportionate, and time-limited.

A major concern among candidate countries is that the safeguards could create a two-tier membership system. Countries like the Netherlands and France advocate for tougher safeguards, citing Hungary's experience under Viktor Orbán and the challenge of addressing democratic backsliding once a country has joined. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos defended the measures, stating that the EU needs to ensure that newly joined countries maintain high standards on the rule of law and do not fall below those standards.

However, candidates remain cautious, particularly regarding the 15-year probation period, which could potentially be used for political pressure or coercion.

Candidates fear that the safeguards could be abused for political purposes, especially in bilateral disputes with existing member states. Zlatko Vujović, president of the NGO Centre for Monitoring and Research, emphasized the importance of avoiding blackmail by old members. Participants in negotiations stress that the safeguards should be based on objective criteria and systematic breaches, and that monitoring should be enhanced through an expanded version of the rule of law reports and information collected under Article 7 of the EU treaty.

The proposed safeguard clause is temporary, but there is a risk that it might be extended or made permanent. Candidates are concerned about the potential misuse of this mechanism and the ease with which it could be triggered, even by a qualified majority of member states. The Commission's proposals are non-binding and will likely be a significant point of contention in the final stages of accession negotiations, shaped by each newcomer's circumstances and its bargaining position.