Deutsche Bank’s top picks in mining as copper market faces potential squeeze

The mining sector has been performing well through the third quarter and year-to-date, with copper prices surging as the primary driver. However, recent macro risks such as rising bond yields and a stronger dollar have put pressure on markets, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Despite these concerns, Analyst Liam Fitzpatrick remains optimistic about copper fundamentals, predicting an acute squeeze in the coming quarters.

This outlook is reflected in the bank's price forecasts: copper is raised to $14,500/t, aluminium to $3,050/t, while iron is trimmed to $98/t. These price changes directly impact earnings, with weak iron ore prices turning mark-to-market earnings risk slightly negative for the majors. Meanwhile, copper names remain in upgrade territory, with Deutsche Bank's spot 2027 EBITDA estimates around 20% above consensus.

As a result, Deutsche Bank has identified Anglo Teck, Glencore, Freeport-McMoRan, First Quantum Minerals, and China Hongqiao Group as its top picks in the mining sector.