Databank sees Ghana inflation easing in September

Ghana's annual inflation is projected to slow to between 4.1% and 4.4% in September, according to Databank Research. The forecast represents a decline from the 5.0% recorded in August, which was an increase from 4.6% in July. The anticipated easing is attributed to improved supplies of key food staples, particularly in late-season availability.

This improvement is expected to reduce prices, especially for staples that previously contributed to price volatility. Increased supplies of tomatoes in Accra led to a 23% price decline, while cassava, plantain, and local rice also became cheaper. However, maize, onions, and eggs saw price increases, indicating an uneven food-price landscape.

Ghana's broader disinflation trend was temporarily interrupted in August, but the expected moderation would reverse this trend. Food inflation eased slightly to 3.0% in August from 3.1% in July, while non-food inflation increased to 6.8% from 6.3%, accounting for 71% of overall inflation. Fresh tomatoes were a significant source of pressure in August, with their year-on-year inflation rate reaching 158.3% and contributing 23.1% to the headline rate.

Databank's estimate is lower than other private-sector projections, highlighting uncertainty around the September reading. The official Consumer Price Index release will be crucial in determining whether Ghana's disinflation process regained momentum after August.