Urgent.News

What's breaking now, across thousands of outlets.

More in Finance & Markets

RBI to clarify forex reporting rules soon

RBI's updated forex norms have raised concerns among freelancers, content creators, and small service exporters about whether they now need to file additional export declarations for payments received…

Your backtest beat a t-test. Would it beat a placebo?

You test 11 moving-average crossovers on five years of daily prices. The best one has a Sharpe of 1.2, and a t-test on its returns says p = 0.01. Is it real?

  • T-test shows statistical significance in 10.9% to 78.9% of markets
  • Placebo test stays within 4.6% to 5.5% false positive range
  • Study warns tests may confuse skill with random fluctuations

More from Wednesday 7 October →