Argentina chooses its own Brazil

The recent presidential election in Brazil witnessed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's defeat and Flávio Bolsonaro's victory. Argentina's political establishment closely observed these outcomes, interpreting them according to their own interests. This tendency to selectively focus on certain aspects is reminiscent of the 1980s Choose Your Own Adventure children's book series. Both supporters and opponents of Bolsonaro are utilizing these election results to strengthen their strategies, whether due to conviction or necessity.

Jair Bolsonaro's cabinet prioritizes the fact that the candidate endorsed by President Bolsonaro won. The only Latin American leader to publicly support Flávio Bolsonaro during the campaign was Javier Milei, who traveled to Brazil in July. Bolsonaro's visit, which included criticisms of Lula, has strained diplomatic relations between the two countries.

It remains uncertain whether the October 25 run-off will merely confirm Bolsonaro's victory. Libertarian circles, however, are certain that an ideological shift to the right is occurring in South America under Milei's leadership.

The Peronists in Argentina, led by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, instead focused on the aspect that Brazil was another defeat for an incumbent government, even though it belongs to a friend in Lula. This perspective is becoming increasingly common in South American elections, where opposition candidates often defeat incumbents.

The election outcome was largely predictable, as Bolsonaro and Lula accounted for 92 percent of the votes. Both libertarian and Peronist factions agree on the need for a strategy based on opposing poles, offering options with little room for other alternatives.

An unexpected consequence of these results is the lack of prediction by opinion polls. This situation is not unique to Argentina, as miscalculations are common in South American politics and media. As with Choose Your Own Poll, the cycle continues.