3 years of October 7 attack: ‘Never take the enemy lightly’ — What went wrong for Israel? Expert weighs in
Three years after the October 7 Hamas attack, questions remain over Israel’s intelligence and security failures. Expert Khinvraj Jangid says overconfidence about Hamas, political turmoil and misreading the threat exposed vulnerabilities, offering lessons for India on national security.
Israel commemorated three years since the Hamas-led October 7 attack, during which approximately 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage. This devastating assault exposed significant gaps in Israel's intelligence assessment and security preparedness, thereby igniting the war in Gaza that has claimed over 74,200 lives according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
Various reports have highlighted prior intelligence warnings from other nations and other indicators that Israel failed to adequately address, as well as an overarching inability to gauge Hamas' intentions and capabilities. Dr. Khinvraj Jangid, Professor and Director of the Jindal Centre for Israel Studies, emphasized that the failure extended beyond a singular intelligence lapse.
He noted two primary failures: an intelligence failure where Israel did not seriously consider Hamas' activity and preparations, and a political failure due to Israel's intense domestic crisis in 2023. Prof. Jangid explained that before October 2023, Israel consistently underestimated Hamas' threat, assuming their attacks would be limited to rocket or balloon launches.
This led to a sense of complacency and overconfidence regarding Hamas' capabilities. Additionally, the domestic turmoil surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's judicial overhaul and subsequent civil unrest diverted attention from external security threats. Jangid recalled that Israel's Defense Minister had previously warned the government that the domestic crisis could have security consequences.
He stressed that the October 7 assault was a profound shock for Israel, marking the first time civilians experienced a massacre of such magnitude since the state's establishment. This attack not only transformed the conflict into a broader regional war involving Iran-backed groups but also forced Israel to evacuate more than 100,000 residents near the Lebanese border for two years.
Israel's post-October 7 security calculations now encompass confronting Iran and its regional network, viewing Iran as the source of the threat. For India, Jangid highlighted two key lessons: the importance of not underestimating an adversary and the need to maintain vigilance against potential threats.
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