2027: Distrust, Vote Buying Threaten Turnout, Says Yiaga Africa

Yiaga Africa's National Voting Intentions Survey, NVIS 3.0, reveals that despite 84% of Nigerians expressing their intention to vote in the 2027 general elections, only 34% feel confident in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The study, conducted in September 2026, highlights that insecurity and weak trust in electoral institutions could deter millions from casting their ballots.

One in three respondents fear violence could prevent them from voting, with the North-East showing the highest concern at 78%. Citizens' trust in INEC has weakened, with only 34% expressing confidence in the upcoming elections, compared to 45% in previous rounds. A majority, 49%, disapprove of the current administration's performance, while 71% rate the economy as poor or very poor.

The desire for change in leadership emerges as the leading motivation to vote, followed by the economy, jobs, and security. Young voters show the weakest intention to participate in voting, with only 40% expressing they are very likely to do so, compared to 64% of those aged 61 and above. The report underscores the need for urgent action from various stakeholders, including the Federal Government, security agencies, INEC, judiciary, political parties, civil society, and the media, to address the issues of security, credibility, logistics, and voter education to ensure a successful and inclusive election.